Brexit? What if everyone had voted?

The UK EU Referendum was an advisory poll on whether the UK should leave the EU. Just over 1/4 of the population voted that we should leave which, I believe therefore invalidates it as a mandate to take action. Furthermore, a large majority of young voters did not turn out to vote because they feel disenfranchised by the state of politics. Using available population and voting pattern demographics I have interpolated the data using standard techniques to estimate how the vote would have turn out if everyone from all age groups had voted to understand if the UK as a whole wants to leave the EU.

 

Summary of Results:

1. If the demographic data are reliable (there is no reason to believe they are not) then in fact 51% of the electorate likely felt that we should remain in the EU on the day of the referendum. This result undermines the interpretation that

52% of the electorate wished to leave. Expressed over the whole population, roughly 1/3 of the whole population wished to remain, 1/3 to leave and a further 1/3 were ineligible to vote. This cannot be viewed as a majority vote to leave.

2. Furthermore, since the event, many leave voters discover that many of the pledges and apparent facts used to persuade their vote turned out to be lies, misrepresentations and propaganda.

Millions of voters regret their decision and are furious that they were deceived.

3. If we further take into account that the exit process will take 2-3 years then millions of younger voters will have reached voting age who wish to remain (75% of young people voted to remain in polls) and at least 1m older voters

will have passed away further shifting the overall view of the UK into a strong desire to remain.

 

These points individually suggest there is no mandate to parliament to leave the EU. Taken together this conlusion becomes undeniable.

 

Britain as a whole was undecided on this matter and it would be wrong for the entire population to be forced to leave based on the views of just over 1/4 of them.

brexit

Download the full data analysis (PDF)

UK EU Referendum Analysis 1